Excess estimation in On/Off measurements including single-event variables

Discussion timeslot (ZOOM-Meeting): 16. July 2021 - 18:00
ZOOM-Meeting URL: https://icrc2021.desy.de/pf_access_abstracts
Corresponding Session: https://icrc2021-venue.desy.de/channel/Presenter-Forum-1-Evening-All-Categories/48
Abstract:
'Signal estimation in the presence of background noise is a common problem in many scientific disciplines. An “On/Off” measurement is when the background itself is imprecisely measured, which is the case for instance of observations performed in astronomy. The ‘frequentist’ and Bayesian approaches for signal estimation in “On/Off” measurements are reviewed and compared, focusing on the weakness of the former and on the advantages of the latter in correctly addressing the Poissonian nature of the problem. We propose a new method for estimating the signal rate based on the Bayesian formalism. It uses information on single-event variables and their distribution for the signal and background population. Events are thereby weighted according to their likelihood of being a signal or a background event and background suppression can be achieved without performing data selection cuts. Simulating “On/Off” measurements from imaging atmospheric Cherenkov observations, we conclude that this new method is capable of increasing the resolution of the signal estimation, in particular for background dominated observations.'

Authors: Giacomo D'Amico
Co-Authors: Michele Doro | Tomislav Terzić | Jelena Strišković | Marcel Strzys | Juliane van Scherpenberg
Indico-ID: 254
Proceeding URL: https://pos.sissa.it/395/702